{"id":36807,"date":"2021-01-21T20:28:04","date_gmt":"2021-01-21T20:28:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vailvalleypartnership.com\/?p=36807"},"modified":"2021-01-21T20:28:04","modified_gmt":"2021-01-21T20:28:04","slug":"looking-to-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vailvalleypartnership.com\/2021\/01\/looking-to-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"LOOKING TO 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"

How does one even begin to sum up 2020?\u00a0 It is very tempting to catalog everything that happened, but let\u2019s leave that effort to the news organizations and the historians.\u00a0 Instead, let us look forward.\u00a0 As we look at 2021 three major trends are emerging: political disruption, Coronavirus changes, and economic evolution.<\/p>\n

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It seems after every election we are amazed by the vitriol that has been injected into the political sphere.\u00a0 The 2020 election had more than its fair share.\u00a0 The results show us a country that is deeply divided on a number of issues and this division brings with it increased uncertainty for businesses as both regulation and taxation will be oscillating from one extreme to the other.\u00a0 That being said, American businesses are extremely flexible and should be able to handle it.\u00a0 No matter what the make-up is of the U.S Congress, the reality is there will be only so much the new administration will be able to get done before the mid-term elections.\u00a0 While politics will continue to dominate headlines there may not be much in the way of sustained market moving actions.<\/p>\n

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Regarding COVID-19, the vaccine rollout has started.\u00a0 Most estimates seem to put the achievement of some type of \u201cherd immunity\u201d due to vaccinations and survivors of COVID-19 as sometime around late summer.\u00a0 As that effort comes to fruition and we get back to \u201cnormal\u201d there will likely be some amount of walking back of the major COVID-19 trends.\u00a0 Those trends include working from home, suspension of business travel, movement to smaller communities, and de-globalization.\u00a0 It is hard to put the genie back into the bottle though.\u00a0 While some rebound will occur, these were trends that existed before COVID-19 and will likely continue into the future.<\/p>\n

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One other change out of 2020 will be harder to walk back, fiscal and monetary support for the economy.\u00a0 As I mentioned in my last newsletter, we have seen an unprecedented amount of support for the economy both from the U.S. Government (fiscal) and from the U.S. Federal Reserve (monetary).\u00a0 Similar support, but on a much smaller scale, happened during the 2008 Financial Crisis, but what happened in 2020 dwarfs the efforts in 2008.\u00a0 This will likely continue into 2021.<\/p>\n

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Far from just supporting those individuals hardest hit by COVID-19, a fair amount of the stimulus seems to have found its way into asset prices.\u00a0 We\u2019ve seen record prices in stocks, some real estate (Location, Location, Location), gold, cryptocurrencies, and even collectable sneakers!\u00a0 Do these prices reflect a bubble?\u00a0 The answer to that question will likely depend on whether or not it continues.<\/p>\n

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From a monetary point of view, it is unlikely to change.\u00a0 The current Chairperson of the U.S. Federal Reserve has stated that they plan on keeping interest rates low thru 2021 at least.\u00a0 Of course, he may be replaced with the incoming of the new administration, but it would very surprising if that view changed.\u00a0 Likely the Federal Reserve will continue to offer material support for the economy until it sees clear signs of the economy strengthening like near full employment or strong inflation.<\/p>\n

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From a fiscal point of view the outlook is murkier.\u00a0 A lot may depend on the makeup of the Congress, but no matter which party controls the different chambers they would be hard pressed to not continue with some sort of stimulus early in 2021.\u00a0 The only real question is the amount and how it is distributed.<\/p>\n

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As we look to 2021, we will be offsetting the (hopefully diminishing) effects of COVID-19 against the fiscal and monetary support.\u00a0 We think the market should continue to show some strength and interest rates should continue to stay low.<\/p>\n

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On a personal note, I would like to thank you, our clients, for the flexibility you\u2019ve continued to show my staff and myself with online meetings and dealing with the vagaries of sending documents through the mail or over the internet.\u00a0 We are planning to continue to meet virtually or over the phone well into 2021.\u00a0 As always if there is anything we can be doing better to help you understand your financial situation, please don\u2019t hesitate to reach out to me. c<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Kevin P. Sullivan, CFA, CFP\u00ae, AIF<\/strong><\/p>\n

View My Website<\/a><\/p>\n

1229 Lake Plaza Drive<\/p>\n

Colorado Springs, CO 80906<\/p>\n

719.576.4500<\/p>\n

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Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA\/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc., and Sullivan & Associates. Sullivan & Associates is not a registered broker\/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.<\/p>\n

Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP\u00ae, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER\u2122, CFP\u00ae (with plaque design) and CFP\u00ae (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.<\/p>\n

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary of statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Some material created by Raymond James for use by is advisors. Any opinions are those of Kevin Sullivan and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Please note that international investing involves risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Companies engaged in business related to a specific sector are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company\u2019s board of directors. Re-balancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How does one even begin to sum up 2020?\u00a0 It is very tempting to catalog everything that happened, but let\u2019s…
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