{"id":35009,"date":"2020-08-26T17:03:03","date_gmt":"2020-08-26T17:03:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vailvalleypartnership.com\/?p=35009"},"modified":"2020-08-26T17:03:03","modified_gmt":"2020-08-26T17:03:03","slug":"cliches-and-economic-trends-offer-preview-to-winter-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vailvalleypartnership.com\/2020\/08\/cliches-and-economic-trends-offer-preview-to-winter-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Cliches and economic trends offer preview to winter season"},"content":{"rendered":"

The thing about cliches is that there is often a grain of truth to them.<\/p>\n

In today\u2019s COVID \u201cnew normal\u201d environment, we\u2019re seeing many cliches and buzzwords. Consider in these \u201cchallenging,\u201d \u201ctrying,\u201d \u201cuncertain\u201d or \u201cunprecedented\u201d times, while \u201cdoors are closed\u201d or \u201cdistance between us\u201d has grown, we can still \u201cstay connected\u201d in the \u201csafety of our home.\u201d Brands promise to remain with you, assuring us that we can all get through this \u201ctogether\u201d (\u201ctogether,\u201d \u201ctogether\u201d and \u201ctogether\u201d).<\/p>\n

Sports cliches offer a glimpse into the upcoming winter season. After all, \u201cwe need to take it one game at a time” as we look ahead to the winter. Our continued fight against COVID has \u201cturned into a defensive battle\u201d but the good news is that \u201cdefense wins championships\u201d. Businesses across industry sector need to be \u201ca student of the game\u201d to plan ahead for their marketing and workforce needs.<\/p>\n

Cliches and buzzwords are overused and commonplace; apologies for littering this column with so many in three paragraphs. Despite the annoyance of cliches, it is going to be paramount to focus on \u201cblocking and tackling\u201d \u2013 focusing on the basics of customer service and core business principals as we move forward, while understanding the macro and micro-economic factors that drive our economy.<\/p>\n

Consumer confidence, which both reflects and drivers how consumers feel about the economy, is highly impacted by jobs gains and losses, as is the availability of discretionary spend, and how saving vs spending habits are practiced. Increases in jobless claims are cited by Consumers as a reason for decreased confidence this month.<\/p>\n

The Conference Board recently reported that consumer confidence fell<\/a> for the second consecutive month. The confidence level is now at its lowest point of the pandemic. Consumers who think business conditions are \u201cbad\u201d increased from 38.9% to 43.6%<\/strong> and consumers who expect an increase in their income in the next six months declined from14.8% to 12.7%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

When consumers are confident, they spend more, but the reverse is also true. This data shows how important it is for Washington to come together on a pandemic relief package to instill confidence. Such a package should contain timely, temporary, and targeted relief, including a liability safe harbor as well as support for slow-to-recover employers, the unemployed, and state and local governments.<\/p>\n

On the bright side, pessimism about the pandemic\u2019s course is in decline. Perceptions of the safety<\/a> of travel-related activities overall remain better than in July and Americans\u2019 elevated levels of concern about their health and financial safety appear to be on a stable, unchanging course.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re seeing this manifest itself in booking lead times<\/a> across resort communities. Based on data from Inntopia<\/a>, lead times have increased very slightly in the past week, but at approximately 40 days, remain considerably below their seasonal average of 51.8 days. The shorter-than-average lead times continue to be defined by consumers that are wanting to make a travel decision within a \u2018comfort window\u2019 of known conditions.<\/p>\n

Businesses crave certainty; it allows them to plan long-term and make investments to make those plans a reality. And among the largest challenges in our current COVID economy is the lack of certainty. Looking ahead at the winter season, our communities and businesses must balance macro-economic factors such as consumer confidence and micro-economic factors such as booking lead time.<\/p>\n

Our fall and winter seasons are going to look different; \u201cwe have to come together as a team\u201d knowing \u201cthere\u2019s no I in team\u201d in order to \u201ccome together as a team\u201d to understand how macro-economic factors will impact our upcoming winter season.\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Chris Romer is president & CEO of Vail Valley Partnership, the regional chamber of commerce. Learn more at VailValleyPartnership.com<\/a> <\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The thing about cliches is that there is often a grain of truth to them. In today\u2019s COVID \u201cnew normal\u201d…
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